Manipulated Fixed Matches 100% Sure
This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points (this is also something I look at in the book).
There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone.
There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches 1×2 winning tips. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case.
If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
Wisdom of the crowd tells us that the fixed matches 1×2 betting market can be hard to beat, but sometimes it makes a few small mistakes.
It is these you have to look for.
In part two of this article I will see if I can find one of those cracks using a combination of an expected goals model and potential biases in recent odds.
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VIP TICKET FOR 09.05.2026
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 09.05.2026 | Oddevold – Landskrona | X | 3.20 | 1:1 |
| 09.05.2026 | Burgos CF – Almeria | X | 3.20 | 0:0 |
| 09.05.2026 | Tirol – BW Linz | X | 3.30 | 1:1 |
| 09.05.2026 | Braunschweig – SG Dynamo Dresden | 1 | 2.50 | 2:1 |
| Total Odds: 84.48 |
VIP TICKET FOR 02.05.2026
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 02.05.2026 | Dundee FC – St. Mirren | 1 | 2.20 | 1:0 |
| 02.05.2026 | Eibar – Malaga | 2 | 3.75 | 2:4 |
| 02.05.2026 | Ostrava – Mlada Boleslav | X | 3.60 | 0:0 |
| 02.05.2026 | Barrow – Newport | 2 | 2.40 | 1:2 |
| Total Odds: 71.28 |
VIP TICKET FOR 25.04.2026
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 25.04.2026 | Rotherham – Reading | X | 3.50 | 1:1 |
| 25.04.2026 | Pontevedra – Celta Vigo B | X | 3.10 | 1:1 |
| 25.04.2026 | Teplice – Hradec Kralove | 2 | 2.40 | 0:1 |
| 25.04.2026 | Grenoble – Le Mans | X | 3.50 | 1:1 |
| Total Odds: 91.14 |
VIP TICKET FOR 18.04.2026
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 18.04.2026 | Hull – Birmingham | X | 3.40 | 1:1 |
| 18.04.2026 | Harrogate – Colchester | 1 | 3.20 | 1:0 |
| 18.04.2026 | SG Dynamo Dresden – Bochum | 1 | 2.25 | 2:0 |
| 18.04.2026 | Landskrona – Ljungskile | 1 | 2.50 | 1:0 |
| Total Odds: 61.20 |
VIP TICKET FOR 21.03.2026
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 21.03.2026 | Cadiz CF – Malaga | 2 | 2.35 | 0:3 |
| 21.03.2026 | Peterhead – Montrose | X | 3.40 | 1:1 |
| 21.03.2026 | AFC Wimbledon – Peterborough | X | 3.50 | 1:1 |
| 21.03.2026 | Elversberg – Arminia Bielefeld | 1 | 2.00 | 3:1 |
| Total Odds: 55.93 |
VIP TICKET FOR 14.03.2026
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 14.03.2026 | Zaragoza – Almeria | 1 | 3.00 | 2:0 |
| 14.03.2026 | Peterhead – Stenhousemuir | 2 | 2.30 | 0:1 |
| 14.03.2026 | Gil Vicente – Alverca | X | 3.60 | 2:2 |
| 14.03.2026 | Fleetwood – Tranmere | X | 3.50 | 0:0 |
| Total Odds: 86.94 |
VIP TICKET FOR 07.03.2026
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 07.03.2026 | East Fife – Hamilton | 2 | 2.90 | 0:3 |
| 07.03.2026 | Crawley – Swindon | X | 3.60 | 2:2 |
| 07.03.2026 | Yeovil – Scunthorpe | 2 | 2.10 | 0:3 |
| 07.03.2026 | Regensburg – VFL Osnabruck | 2 | 2.50 | 0:2 |
| Total Odds: 54.81 |
VIP TICKET FOR 06.12.2025
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 06.12.2025 | Bochum – Arminia Bielefeld | 1 | 2.60 | 1:0 |
| 06.12.2025 | AFS – Rio Ave | 2 | 2.20 | 1:2 |
| 06.12.2025 | Queen of South – Cove Rangers | X | 3.50 | 1:1 |
| 06.12.2025 | Elgin City – Clyde | X | 3.40 | 1:1 |
| Total Odds: 68.06 |
VIP TICKET FOR 29.11.2025
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 29.11.2025 | Ceuta – Burgos CF | 1 | 2.20 | 1:0 |
| 29.11.2025 | Ruch Chorzow – Puszcza | 1 | 2.00 | 2:0 |
| 29.11.2025 | Istra 1961 – Slaven Belupo | X | 3.00 | 1:1 |
| 29.11.2025 | Solihull Moors – Wealdstone | X | 3.50 | 1:1 |
| Total Odds: 46.20 |
VIP TICKET FOR 15.11.2025
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 15.11.2025 | Aldosivi – San Martin S.J. | 1 | 2.10 | 4:2 |
| 15.11.2025 | Volta Redonda – Chapecoense-SC | X | 4.00 | 1:1 |
| 15.11.2025 | Port Vale – Wycombe | X | 3.40 | 0:0 |
| 15.11.2025 | Elgin City – Dumbarton | 1 | 2.00 | 2:0 |
| Total Odds: 57.12 |
VIP TICKET FOR 18.10.2025
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 18.10.2025 | Alloa – East Fife | X | 3.50 | 1:1 |
| 18.10.2025 | Falkenberg – Orgryte | 1 | 3.40 | 3:0 |
| 18.10.2025 | VPS – Jaro | 2 | 2.50 | 1:3 |
| 18.10.2025 | Lincoln – Stevenage | 1 | 2.20 | 1:0 |
| Total Odds: 65.45 |
VIP TICKET FOR 27.09.2025
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 27.09.2025 | Barnsley – Port Vale | 2 | 3.20 | 0:2 |
| 27.09.2025 | Oldham – Barnet | X | 3.20 | 1:1 |
| 27.09.2025 | Las Palmas – Almeria | 2 | 3.40 | 0:2 |
| 27.09.2025 | Elgin City – Spartans | 2 | 2.50 | 2:3 |
| Total Odds: 87.04 |
VIP TICKET FOR 20.09.2025
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 20.09.2025 | Arbroath – Morton | X | 3.00 | 1:1 |
| 20.09.2025 | Reading – Leyton Orient | 1 | 2.30 | 2:1 |
| 20.09.2025 | Austria Vienna – Ried | 1 | 2.20 | 3:2 |
| 20.09.2025 | Dundee FC – Livingston | 1 | 3.00 | 3:2 |
| Total Odds: 45.54 |
VIP TICKET FOR 13.09.2025
| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 13.09.2025 | Teplice – Mlada Boleslav | 2 | 2.80 | 2:3 |
| 13.09.2025 | Northampton – Blackpool | 1 | 2.70 | 1:0 |
| 13.09.2025 | Oldham – Bromley | 1 | 2.50 | 1:0 |
| 13.09.2025 | Annecy – Reims | X | 3.30 | 1:1 |
| Total Odds: 62.37 |