Manipulated Fixed Matches 100% Sure
This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points (this is also something I look at in the book).
There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone.
There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches 1×2 winning tips. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case.
If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
Wisdom of the crowd tells us that the fixed matches 1×2 betting market can be hard to beat, but sometimes it makes a few small mistakes.
It is these you have to look for.
In part two of this article I will see if I can find one of those cracks using a combination of an expected goals model and potential biases in recent odds.
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| DATE | MATCH | PICK | ODD | FT |
| 11.07.2026 | Benfica – Flamengo RJ | 2 | 2.60 | 1:2 |
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